Pragya Sherchan
The UNFCCC COP 26 was concluded in November at Glasgow, Scotland. Every individual’s concern was: Will the global leaders take urgent and ambitious actions on greenhouse gases emission reduction as warned by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)? However, the two- week long intense negotiation ended with adoption of watered down (a compromise and a hope) “Glasgow Climate Pact” from “Glasgow Climate Emergency Pact” and with the last minute change from coal ‘Phase-out‘ to ‘phase-down’.
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published Working Group I (WGI) report on Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis as a part of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) in August 2021. The report unequivocally highlights “observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 caused by human activities”. This has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land, leading to widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere.
IPCC is the United Nations body created by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988. It was created to provide policy makers with regular scientific assessments on the current state of knowledge on climate change, its natural, political and economic impacts and future risk and possible response options for adaptation and mitigation. Till date IPCC has had five assessment cycles and published five Assessment Reports. In 2007, the IPCC and Vice-President Al Gore of the United States of America were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to build up and disseminate greater knowledge on human-induced climate change via AR4. Likewise, the two authors- Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann from IPCC have also got the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics for research that advances understanding of complex physical system such as Earth’s Changing climate. Now, IPCC is in its sixth assessment cycle. The IPCC is divided into three Working Groups viz. Working Group I: deals with The Physical Science Basis of CC; Working Group II: deals with CC Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; and Working Group III: deals with the Mitigation of CC.
The AR 6 WG 1 report has made the following conclusions on global temperature projection and the impacts.
It is indisputable that human activities are causing climate change making extreme climate events, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, more frequent and severe.
The earth’s global surface temperature was 1.09˚C (≈ 1.1 ˚C) higher in the decade between 2011-2020 than compared to the pre-industrial period.
Business as usual emission scenario temperature rise to 1.5 ˚C will be crossed in the next 20 years, and 2 ˚C by the middle of the century.
Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth in multiple ways. The changes we experience will increase with further warming.
Every additional 0.5 ˚C of warming will increase hot extremes, extreme precipitation, and drought as well as weaken the earth’s carbon sinks present in plants, soils, and the ocean.
Snow melting is faster, glacier retreat and mass loss are unprecedented in at least 2000 years. Sea-level rise has tripled compared to 1901-1971.
The frequency of occurring climate events is once in every 10 years in the pre-industrial period has increased to 2.8 times in the present context with 1˚C warmer and with the further increase in temperature from 1.5 ˚C, and 2 ˚C the frequency would be 4.1 times and 5.6 times.
There is no going back from some changes in the climate system. However, some changes could be slowed and others could be stopped by limiting warming.
Unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in GHGs emissions, limiting warming to 1.5˚C and even 2˚C will be beyond reach.
To limit global warming, strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in CO2, methane, and other GHGs are necessary. This would not only reduce the consequences of climate change but also improve air quality.
The report also provides a thin chance to stop the negative climate trends by mid-century by stopping the use of fossil fuels and stopping deforestation. It has called upon the global community to take climate action immediately as there is no time for delay and no room for excuses.
The current greenhouse gases reduction commitment is highly insufficient to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 ˚C. As the global carbon emission needs to reduce by 45% from the 2010 level in the next nine years and net-zero by 2050. But, ironically the world is heading towards 2.4˚C by the end of this century, based on the current NDC submitted by 194 countries. The developed nations continued to shirk their historical responsibilities, obstructing funding for Loss and Damage. The COP26 did not secure a stable climate but it set directions for future climate actions, with improvements.
Though the outcomes did not meet the expectations of countries like Nepal, still a least developed and vulnerable country to climate change must urge the high emitting countries to take ambitious and urgent targets for climate emergency to save the world. For this strong political will is crucial at the international, national, and local level. In Nepal, the local election is on the forefront, now it is time to make environment and climate change issues of the political manifesto to tackle the climate emergency.
